Will Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 Series Bring Focus Back on End-User?

Software behemoth Microsoft is usually not the company that gets top-of-the-mind recall when someone mentions smartphones. Particularly, in the post-iPhone era, Microsoft's foray into building software platforms for smartphones has been turning into an eminently forgettable chapter. And it is not just mindshare, the numbers speak for themselves. Gartner has recently published its 2009 handset market share figures, and Microsoft's slide is evident. The company slipped from its third position in 2008 to fourth behind Symbian, RIM and Apple, accounting for only 8.7% of all smartphones shipped globally.

Microsoft appears to have recognized the precarious position that it is in, one bordering on irrelevancy in the market for a mobile operating system. And in a manner which is very un-typical of the company, Microsoft chose to tackle the problem head-on with its launch of the Windows Phone 7 Series, which despite being a mouthful, packs a punch. While Microsoft has take a completely different and bold approach to the design of the OS, it is more interesting to see the impact that Microsoft can have on the overall smartphone ecosystem, that increasingly appears to be to shaping up as a bubble that I had earlier alluded to, one dominated by an inordinate focus on mobile applications.

The smartphone market has been in a phase of hyper-attention (and strong growth too, I must add) for the last couple of years. More so with the significant attention that is being paid to applications and their ever-increasing download numbers, particularly from the Apple Store. This overwhelming focus on applications has meant that every player in the telecoms and handset space, and their neighbor, has an app store. However, increasingly, the discussion appeared to be veering so much towards applications, that the overall user experience and a primary focus on the end-user was probably lost along the way. While Apple offered a highly engaged audience for mobile developers, Android with its open approach promised to unshackle developers from the restrictive rules of Apple's vertically integrated ecosystem. Phone launches were accompanied by significant noise on how many applications that users can download. More worryingly, the primary target market for smartphone vendors appeared to be developers and how to bring them aboard. The implicit assumption has been that users will flock to the platform that has more applications. Take the recent announcement of the Wholesale Applications Community from the grand alliance of 27 mobile operators and device vendors which was clearly aimed at attracting developers onto a platform that they control. And this thinking is increasingly becoming more prominent. Indeed, a Wall Street Journal story suggests that the recent purge of risque apps on the Apple store might get developers to abandon ship and move to Android. Like most of the focus in recent times, the end-user is completely missing from the picture. The singular focus on developers is too hard to miss.

I am in no way denying the important role that developers get to play in the smartphone ecosystem. Indeed, I'd attribute the strong success of smartphones as a category to a potent combo of killer apps + high carrier subsidies. However, that should not be reason for any one stakeholder in the ecosystem to upend the consumer's position.

It is in this context that I find the Microsoft approach to a mobile platform refreshing. The UI in itself has eliminated the need for users to jump between applications. While it might be a tiny change in the overall context, however, I view that as indicative of the consumer returning to the forefront. It represents a design where the end-user takes precedence over all other stakeholders. Microsoft's presentation at the MWC has been remarkably bereft of a focus on applications. In fact, the company has gone on to the extent of not disclosing much info for the developer community, reserving it for a separate developer-focussed event.

Microsoft's focus on the consumer, and this time the enterprise category, with exchange, sharepoint and office functionality in-built is likely to work in favor of a significant proportion of enterprise users. In the smartphone space, players including Apple and Android vendors have targeted this segment as an after-thought. Driven by the idea that enterprise consumers can be a profitable proposition, multiple vendors and carriers have tried to push through smartphones into the enterprise, but haven't seen real great successes against the likes of RIM. However, Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 arguably holds the strongest potential for enterprise adoption, thanks to its native feature-set.

Microsoft has, over the years, shown that it has vision when it comes to desktop computing, user interfaces and the like; and this launch certainly proves that they have the potential and capability to boldly think out of the box when it comes to mobile platforms. However, it remains to be seen if this vision can be translated to execution. But as far as I am concerned, I believe Microsoft has already made its contribution in changing the course of the smartphone industry. By bringing the focus back on the end-user, it is forcing its current competitors to acknowledge and act. And in the long-run, despite the success or failure of Windows Phone 7, this development is likely to have a positive impact on the overall industry. Indeed, there are very few, if any, examples of industries that have thrived by focusing on any element of the value-chain that reads other than end-users.

Online Video...A Quick Update

Online video continues to make waves. Be it Veoh shutting shop or that giant of a company, Walmart purchasing Vudu. User interest in consuming online video also shows no signs of abating. Indeed, stats released from the BBC iPlayer confirm the same, with video streams more than doubling year-on-year. The reports reveal some interesting new trends, while validating a few existing ones. Consumption is increasing, albeit slowly, on platforms beyond the desktop, and streaming is increasingly the choice mode of viewing. That viewing patterns replicate broadcast TV in terms of time-of-day should drive broadcasters to understand that linear TV in its present form is rapidly getting out of fashion. Consumers are open to the idea of viewing TV content on other platforms, while it might be low in absolute terms, however, the larger trends are clearly making themselves obvious.

The BBC sure appears to have hit the right chords when it comes to new media delivery. They have also recently unveiled a plan to launch a series of mobile applications for smartphones that will enable them to offer content from their stable. However, as is typical of a public sector undertaking, even this initiative has met with  resistance from newspaper organizations who take issue with BBC's pricing of the apps. They are priced zero pounds. The BBC is not new to this kind of protests. The iPlayer has been a constant target of ISPs who contend that the service chokes bandwidth without monetizing them.

Anyway, take a look at the iPlayer report embedded below. Some neat tidbits.

BBC iPlayer Statistics - January 2010

View more presentations from Subrahmanyam KVJ.

Is a Smartphone Bubble Building Up?

The signs are getting clear by the day. What started off as a category created by a blockbuster product, is today being heralded as the savior of the mobile handset industry. Correction, the mobile industry in itself. Smartphones, and I am referring to the genre that has unleashed itself post the advent of the iPhone, have seen a smart uptick in sales in recent years. Driven by significant carrier subsidies in the US and elsewhere, and a renewed focus on mobile applications, this category has rapidly gained, both in user acceptance, and in industry attention.

Indeed, for the first time in years, smartphones, coupled with an open mobile ecosystem where customers are not bound by walled gardens, are helping in creating an industry of their own with stakeholders as varied as advertisers, ad networks, mobile developers, and others. Of course, the carriers and the handset vendors still figure in the equation, however, they appear to be increasingly dis-intermediated by either large Internet players such as Google or by innovative device entrants such as Apple, who have successfully recreated walled gardens of a different type. While all of this portends great for the consumer, however, the manner in which the hype is building up in the smartphone space, dominated by discussions over mobile applications, makes one wonder if there is indeed a bubble that's building up, across two of the important elements of this value chain, applications and devices.

The mobile applications space refuses to show signs of any letdown in activity. First it was the spate of announcements over mobile application store launches, and now the focus appears to be on other enablers of the value chain such as ad networks. Apple's App Store sure has seen a couple of billion downloads and a catalog of over 100,000 applications, however, the marginal utility of an ever-increasing number of apps is highly debatable. And not to be outdone, Google's Android marketplace has over 10,000 applications already. Which begs the question, how much is enough? For the consumers, discoverability becomes a huge hurdle, while for the developers, the ecosystem is beginning to act as a strong black hole. Sure there are AAA app developers who've struck it rich, but then, like in the case of any other content businesses, it is only a few apps that hit the jackpot. However, the mobile apps business sure is showing no signs of acknowledging this fact. To add to the overall confusion, multiple versions (Android 1, 1.5 and now 2.0!) of OS platforms are currently out in the market simultaneously, which has significant potential to alientate customers that can't figure out why a specific app is working on their friend's Android phone and not theirs. Yet, device vendors continue to create platforms to attract developers, Samsung's Bada being the latest to join the bandwagon. And with increasing apps, comes the realization of the need for monetization. And this is where ad networks like Admob hit paydirt. Their acquisition for $750 Mn is indeed seen as a validation of the potential of the mobile advertising space, and of course, without underplaying any of the value that in-app usage data that Google gets along.

On the device side, Apple continues to see rising sales. Forecasts are now coming in on how smartphones will likely make up for the bulk of handset sales 18 months from now! Players like Sony Ericsson and Motorola have kind of decided to go away from their low-cost handset focus and invest more on high-end smartphones. And we have even more new entrants in to the smartphone space. Dell, which has been on the fence for quite a while, has finally decided to take the plunge and is launching its smartphone in two of the world's largest emerging markets of Brazil and China. Android is now in to V2, with the Motorola Droid appearing to get early traction.

Rapid growth in any industry segment is always welcome. It indicates that there is significant previously unmet customer demand that newer products are meeting. However, the risk of such rapid growth lies in the possibility of over-the-top exuberance when it comes to estimating future growth. As a wise man once said, most forecasts are over-estimated in the short-term and under-estimated in the long term. Smartphones and mobile applications appear to fit this bill. One can only hope that the current hyper-growth phase is also likely to act as a natural shakeup with the result being fewer smartphone platforms, more open standards for mobile application development, an ecosystem that offers genuine revenue prospects for developers, ad networks, and advertisers, and most importantly, a top-notch customer experience, rather than morph itself in to an uncontrollable bubble.

Update 1: It didn't take long for the next major announcement in smartphones. Techcrunch's quoting unnamed sources that claim Google is close to launching its own smartphone ! Highly doubtful why they want to do that, given manufacturers are already making a beeline to adopt Android. Would Google want to compete with its partners? And more importantly, can Google ensure rapid adoption of its services through its own phone, as opposed to collaborating through the Android ecosystem. Nevertheless, up goes the hype curve !