This Apple Defies Newton's Laws

The title sure seems apposite when viewed in light of Apple's latest quarterly results. Despite the all-round depressed economic environment, and declining consumer spend on TME products and services, Apple has managed to drive both top-line and bottom-line growth significantly. That such stellar results have come in what is usually considered a soft quarter of the year is testament to the twin growth engines of Macs and iPhones. With the iPhone having established itself as the benchmark in the smartphone space, and Macs increasingly finding mainstream acceptance, Apple now appears to be setting sights on creating future revenue streams.

In this backdrop, it is interesting to see how Apple is increasingly using content to create and sustain its future growth. While the iPhone with its staggering 100 K+ apps (leaving aside the quality/quantity debate) forms a key part of Apple's long-term competitive edge in the smartphone space, its attempts to use the iTunes platform as the gateway for digital content into the home merits a deeper look.

Recent reports indicate that Apple is now negotiating with TV networks on introducing a monthly subscription product. The idea being that for an amount of ~$30, consumers could get access to TV content through iTunes. Internet TV is steadily raising its profile, with the rising success of Hulu. However, treating it at par with traditional TV platforms is some time away. Broadcasters and cablecos have begun to feel threatened over such over the top services. However, Apple's entry has the potential to raise the stakes and enhance the reach of Internet TV services. Unlike a Hulu, which is largely viewed on PC (forgetting the Rokus of the world), the prospect of using iTunes as the enabling platform, as opposed to a device, poses a tricky situation for the TV networks. In putting iTunes as its front. Apple's leaving the door open for a device-agnostic future, where content can be viewed/purchased on PC/mobile/E-book/Netbook/what-have-you. With a rising interest from both device vendors and software players in embedding applications directly into next-generation large-screen TVs, the prospect of Apple embedding iTunes in to a TV doesn't sound that much more preposterous. Now compare this offering from Apple with that of a traditional operator like Comcast. And suddenly, Comcast's digital TV offerings sound obscene with monthly rentals of over $60! And yes, out goes the "TV Everywhere" initiative as well, given the fact that it requires customers to have a regular cable subscription in order to view the content on PC.

iTunes has had a more than significant role in hastening the demise of the traditional music labels, with its a la carte pricing model. If Apple is able to bring a similar proposition to the TV space, that could significantly impact cablecos who thrive on creating bundles and where a host of also-rans piggyback on one or two premium channels. Of course, there is the key issue of one of the large networks actually signing up with Apple, but it is more likely a question of when and not if anymore. Internet TV of course has still to better its overall user experience, given the significant bandwidth requirements, and the renewed debate in US and other developed economies on metering usage. And there's also the issue of shifting consumers to a different screen other than the TV. However, Apple does have a dark horse in there in the form of its relatively-neglected Apple TV line of products. A la carte pricing of TV channels, and a more robust Apple TV can precisely replicate Apple's success in the music business in TV content. And Apple's success is defined not by the margins that it is making in its music sales, but by the strong vertical control that it has over the customer experience, including billing and provisioning. Music labels who initially treated iTunes as just another distribution platform are now realizing that the middleman (Apple) today exerts more influence over the consumer, than them. Video could be the next market.

Internet Radio: Fresh Breath of Life or Last Nail in Coffin

The recent agreement between SoundExchange and various online streaming companies begs the question whether webcasters can now heave a sigh of relief or if it is time for them to down their shutters. The music industry has been in a tailspin for a while with the demise of the CD, and the rise of snacking. Add music piracy, and increased consumer demand for DRM-free music, and you have an industry that is increasingly looking at a black hole. No wonder then, that the current agreement is being viewed in many channels as a victory for the music industry. A way to monetize what is increasingly being seen as the future of music.

While the specific terms of the deal in themselves are highly skewed against smaller webcasters, what with a minimum $25,000 guaranteed payout, it has not given large streaming players such as Pandora a free hand. An immediate visible step that Pandora took has been to cap the number of free hours of listening down to 40, bringing its freemium model into play. While that may offer the solution for the short-term, however, the moot point is, whether this whole debate realizes and recognizes the direction that digital music is taking. Music has been one of the earliest content categories to be impacted significantly by digitization, with the high-priced high-margin physical music falling out of favor with consumers. Rise of media players such as the iPod together with the iTunes ecosystem also hastened the demise of the CD. Now, the same thing seems all set to repeat in the space of a few years. Music labels are increasingly looking at online streaming as the next cash cow, and current pricing levels appear to be pointing towards that direction. Evidence such as those coming from Sweden where labels are making more money from Spotify, than from iTunes, are clear indicators of the future of the music industry.

Rising penetration of mobile devices, coupled with high-speed wireless networks, present a market that is potentially larger than any of the earlier music consuming markets. Working with Internet and telecom players in creating compelling music streaming services, and ramping up uptake of streaming by consumers is the need of the hour. Indeed, evidence is also coming in of how streaming not only has the potential to reduce piracy, but on the contrary, lead to increased consumption of physical music. The music industry could do well to look at Internet streaming in a more holistic way, than just as another revenue stream where they need to adopt a skimming strategy. Whether the recent agreement represents a rising of the phoenix from the ashes or a step towards a pyrrhic victory for the music industry is something that will be keenly seen.

The Monetization Conundrum

The music industry has been, for quite a while, exhibiting the head-stuck-in-sand syndrome. Despite the continuous fall in CD sales [pdf] music labels still love to go around suing individuals and trying to sign up more and more artists in their restrictive agreements. Labels refuse to recognize the fact that physical music is in a state of irreversible decline. Advent of platforms such as iTunes that encouraged uptake of snacking appear to have done little to wake up the labels out of their stupor. On the contrary, the recent price rise, to put it properly-the introduction of variable pricing, in the iTunes store reflects the desperation of the labels to try and make up for "lost" revenue. The spate of announcements that major labels have been doing on collaborating with all and the sundry reflect their attempts at trying to milk the last penny out of all their content repertoire. However, the sad part is that most labels are still trying to outrun the pace of evolution of digital music. In doing so, they have been focussed on monetizing new media in a classic old media format, only difference being they now tend to do it with more partners and in more geographies. This is the easy way out that they are taking due to their reticence to adopt to digital media in its truest form and create innovative business models that ensure they gain a fair value for what is undeniably their copyright. 

This problem of monetizing content in the digital media space is something that is coming to haunt content owners of all hues and types. However, there do appear to be early signs of content owners working with partners to create innovative business models. The Amazon Kindle, of course, represents an emerging and successful way of monetizing and creating newer markets for content that was increasingly being seen as dying. Similarly, Vodafone Spain, along with Real Networks has come up with a reasonably priced flat-rate data plan which allows consumers to download unlimited tracks, from all the major labels limited by DRM though. Rising penetration of mobile devices, coupled with high speed mobile networks, offer a compelling proposition for bundled offerings such as these. With mobile operators as well looking for newer revenue streams, given their declining voice revenues, partnerships are waiting to be frozen. 

Content owners will have to look beyond existing ways of monetizing their assets if they are to truly participate and profit from the digital wave. However, in their short-sightedness in looking only at the next quarter's result, they are increasingly getting further and further away from their core consumer. And this is a void that is now up for grabs from players across the spectrum !